⚠️
ECOLOGICAL CRISIS: Regime shift completed. System in degraded state with minimal recovery capacity.
📉 NDVI Trajectory Analysis
-0.0018/yr
Decline Rate
p < 0.05
45%
Productivity Loss
2000-2025
0.08-0.18
Current Range
2015-2025
RECOVERY FAILURE: Post-drought NDVI rarely returns to pre-stress levels
🔥 VHI Drought Stress
0 → 8
Severe Drought Years
VHI < 35
2% → 25%
Crisis Years
VHI < 30
64%
Drought Frequency
27/42 years
🚨 Critical Threshold
VHI consistently below 40 since 2015 indicates permanent vegetation stress state
🔄 Ecological Memory & Hysteresis
Pre-2000
Narrow Loops
Reversible System
Post-2000
3x Wider
Irreversible Damage
40%
More SM Required
For Recovery
Low
Elasticity
System Memory
🔗 Climate Coupling Strength
NDVI-Rainfall
0.71 → 0.19
86% Weaker
VHI-LST
-0.24 → -0.61
Heat Dominant
DECOUPLING: Rainfall effectiveness collapsed despite stable totals
🔄 Regime Shift Detection
1999-2001
Shift Window
Synchronized
72% → 13%
Healthy State
Cluster 1
8% → 62%
Crisis State
Cluster 3
🎯 Breakpoint Confidence
All major indicators show synchronized structural breaks around 2000 ±1 year
🛡️ Ecosystem Resilience
Recovery Capacity
High
Full bounce-back
Current State
Very Low
Minimal recovery
High
Stress Memory
System remembers
Close
Tipping Point
Irreversible near